Franklin Carvajal

2025 NFL Power Rankings – Week 4



1. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0): The Eagles trailed 26-7 in the third quarter and looked dead, but this is a Super Bowl champion, and they found a way to come back on a good Rams team, 33-26. Two blocked field goal attempts in the fourth quarter were the difference in the victory for the Eagles. Next: -3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 43.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 65.9%

2. Buffalo Bills (3-0): The Bills won on Thursday Night to take a two-game lead over the Patriots and a three-game lead over the Jets and Dolphins after just three weeks of the season. The Bills are on the way to a sixth consecutive AFC East division title, and their main concern is locking up the best record in the AFC. Next: -12.5 vs New Orleans Saints – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 47.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 94.1%

3. Los Angeles Chargers (3-0): The Chargers have a two-game lead in the AFC West after a come-from-behind victory over the Broncos in SoFi Stadium. The victory gave the Chargers a 3-0 record within the AFC West. The defense has been outstanding and wide receiver Keenan Allen has caught a TD pass in each game. Quarterback Justin Herbert leads the NFL in passing yardage. Next: -6 at New York Giants – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 43.5 (ATS: 2-0-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 73.7%

4. Indianapolis Colts (3-0): The Colts continue to be the early surprise in the NFL after beating the Dolphins, Broncos and Titans. The Colts were the first team in NFL history to open the season with two straight games where they didn’t punt or turn the ball over. They punted once against the Titans but did not turn the ball over in their 41-20 victory over the Titans. They face a challenge on the road this week. Next: +3.5 at Los Angeles Rams – Sun, Sep. 28, 1:05 PM PT – O/U: 49.5 (ATS: 3-0 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 33.6%

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0): The Buccaneers are 3-0 with a two-game lead in the NFC South after another come-from-behind victory, this one over the Jets. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been “Captain Comeback” this season, pulling games out in the last minute in all three victories. Next: +3.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 43.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 34.1%

6. Los Angeles Rams (2-1): To loosely quote the late Dennis Green, “the Eagles are who we thought they were, and we let ’em off the hook!” The Rams were cruising in the 3rd quarter 26 to 7 when the Eagles finally got going, cutting the lead to 26-21. The Rams offense gave the team two chances to win the game in the fourth quarter, but two fourth quarter field goal attempts were blocked, with the second block returned for a touchdown in the Eagles 33-26 win over the Rams. Next: -3.5 vs Indianapolis Colts – Sun, Sep. 28, 1:05 PM PT – O/U: 49.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 66.4%

7. Green Bay Packers (2-1): The Packers took on the top defense in the NFL and lost, falling 13-10 to the Browns in Cleveland. The Packers were held to 82 yards rushing and 2.6 yards per carry, Quarterback Jordan Love threw his first interception of the season and was ineffective against the Browns. Next: -7 at Dallas Cowboys – Sun, Sep. 28, 5:20 PM PT – O/U: 47.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 0-3) Win probability: 73.0%

8. Detroit Lions (2-1): The Lions bounced the Ravens 38-30 to move to 2-1 for the season. The Lions have scored 90 points in the past two games and have shown that their potent offense of 2024 is still alive. Quarterback Jared Goff leads the NFL in completion percentage at 77.9%. Next: -10 vs Cleveland Browns – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 44.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 82.9%

9. Washington Commanders (2-1): Backup quarterback Marcus Mariota took the reins for injured starter Jayden Daniels and had a good day, completing 15 of 21 passes for 207 yards and one touchdown, while also adding 6 carries for 40 yards and one touchdown, leading the Commanders to a 41-24 win over the Raiders. Next: -1.5 at Atlanta Falcons – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 45.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 52.8%

10. Minnesota Vikings (2-1): With injured starter J.J. McCarthey out, backup quarterback Carson Wentz got the start against the Bengals and threw two touchdown passes, while running back Jordan Mason rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns as the Vikings boat raced the Bengals, 48-10. Next: -2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sun, Sep. 28, 6:30 AM PT – O/U: 40.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 60.6%

11. San Francisco 49ers (3-0): The 49ers continued with their Smoke ‘n’ Mirrors show, beating the Cardinals on a last second field goal, 16-15. The 49ers have won three games by five points or less and have not looked particularly impressive in any game. The wounded 49ers lost All-Pro defensive end Nick Bosa for the season with a knee injury in the victory. Next: -3.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Sun, Sep. 28, 1:05 PM PT – O/U: 47.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 63.2%

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1): The Steelers got five turnovers and somehow managed to beat the Patriots despite an anemic offensive effort. The Steelers rushed for just 64 yards and averaged 2.5 yards per carry, while QB Aaron Rodgers threw for just 139 yards. The Steelers head for Dublin, Ireland this weekend for a match with the Minnesota Vikings. Next: +2.5 vs Minnesota Vikings – Sun, Sep. 28, 6:30 AM PT – O/U: 40.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 39.4%

13. Seattle Seahawks (2-1): The Seahawks had an easy Sunday with the hapless Saints in town, thrashing the Saints 44-13. Wide receiver Tory Horton had a 95-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 14-yard touchdown reception in the rout. Next: -1.5 at Arizona Cardinals – Thu, Sep. 25, 5:15 PM PT – O/U: 43.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 49.6%

14. Arizona Cardinals (2-1): The Cardinals lost a heartbreaker to the 49ers, 16-15 on a 35-yard field goal with no time left on the clock. The Cardinals also lost running back James Conner for the season with a foot injury. Trey Benson will replace Conner in the starting lineup. Next: +1.5 vs Seattle Seahawks – Thu, Sep. 25, 5:15 PM PT – O/U: 43.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 50.4%

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1): The Jaguars are 2-1 after beating the struggling Texans, 17-10. The Jaguars look like a team that is just scratching the surface of their potential, but they really need to unlock the upside potential of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has a passer rating of 70.3%, which is only ahead of J.J. McCarthey, Jake Browning and Joe Flacco. Next: +3.5 at San Francisco 49ers – Sun, Sep. 28, 1:05 PM PT – O/U: 47.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 36.8%

16. Denver Broncos (1-2): Quarterback Bo Nix has been off when they really need for him to be on in all the two losses and overall has not looked good in his second season in the NFL. Nix just missed on a few deep passes that might have changed the results in the loss to the Chargers on Sunday. The Broncos defense will keep them in playoff contention. Next: -7.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals – Mon, Sep. 29, 5:15 PM PT – O/U: 44.5 (ATS: 0-2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 80.4%

17. Baltimore Ravens (1-2): The Ravens got run over by the Lions on Monday Night, giving up 224 yards on the ground in a 38-30 loss to the Lions. The Raven are struggling on defense. They are last in total yardage allowed per game and 31st in points allowed per game. They have another tough matchup on the road this week. Next: -2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs – Sun, Sep. 28, 1:25 PM PT – O/U 48.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 3-0) Win probability: 67.1%

18. Kansas City Chiefs (1-2): The Chiefs were tied at halftime at 6-6 against the Giants but were able to pull out a win in the second half. The Chiefs are struggling and the last thing they need in Week 4 is to play another struggling team with high expectations. Next: +2.5 vs Baltimore Ravens – Sun, Sep. 28, 1:25 PM – O/U: 48.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 32.9%

19. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1): In their first game without injured quarterback Joe Burrow, the Bengals looked lost on both sides of the ball in a 48-10 blowout loss to the Vikings. It will not get any easier for the Bengals, with a daunting matchup in Denver against the Broncos followed by the Lions and the Packers. Next: +7.5 at Denver Broncos – Mon, Sep. 29, 5:15 PM PT – O/U 44.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 19.6%

20. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2): The Raiders 41-24 loss to the Commanders was a bit disappointing considering the key injuries that the Commanders were fighting through. The Raiders need to get tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty going. The offensive line has been a problem and needs to improve. Next: -1.5 vs Chicago Bears – Sun, Sep. 28, 1:25 PM PT – O/U: 47.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 47.8%

21. New England Patriots (1-2): Five turnovers by the Patriots prevented the Pats from winning at home against the Steelers, as they fell 21-14. The Patriots outgained the Steelers in the game with 369 total yards to just 203 yards for the Steelers. But four lost fumbles were just too much to overcome. Next: -5.5 vs Carolina Panthers – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 42.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 64.7%

22. Cleveland Browns (1-2): In case the Packers were not aware of this fact, the Cleveland Browns are No. 1 in total yardage allowed. The Browns upset the Packers, 13-10 on a 55-yard field goal with no time on the clock by rookie kicker Andre Szmyt. Rookie middle linebacker Carson Schwesinger, the former UCLA star, had ten tackles, seven solo tackles and a sack. Next: +10 at Detroit Lions – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 44.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 17.1%

23. Carolina Panthers (1-2): The Panthers got the first shutout of the 2025 season, blanking the Falcons, 30-0. It was also the first shutout by the Panthers since the 2020 season. The Panthers defense came up with two interceptions and a touchdown in the beatdown. Next: +5.5 at New England Patriots – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 42.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 35.3%

24. Atlanta Falcons (1-2): The Falcons got blown out in Charlotte, losing 30-0 to the Panthers. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was ineffective and benched in the second half. The Falcons are an enigma at this point. Next: +1.5 vs Washington Commanders – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 45.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 0-3) Win probability: 47.2%

25. Chicago Bears (1-2): The Bears got their offense rolling against the Cowboys, winning at home 31-14. Quarterback Caleb Williams threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns, and the Bears won the turnover battle, 4-0. They face another 1-2 team on the road in a critical game for both teams. Next: +1.5 at Las Vegas – Sun, Sep. 28, 1:25 PM PT – O/U: 47.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 52.2%

26. Dallas Cowboys (1-2): The Cowboys are 1-2 after losing to the Bears and the only thing separating the Cowboys from being a 0-3 team is a 64-yard field goal from kicker Brandon Aubrey. The Cowboys do not look like a good defensive team and appear to be missing a key piece from their defense. Next: +7 vs Green Bay Packers – Sun, Sep. 28, 5:20 PM PT – O/U: 47.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 27.0%

27. Houston Texans (0-3): What happened to quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans offense? The Texans are last in the NFL in scoring per game at 12.7 points per game. Stroud has thrown for 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in three games, with a passer rating of 76.9%, which ranks 30th in the NFL. The Texans will have a beatable opponent this weekend. Next: -7 vs Tennessee Titans – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U 38.5 (ATS: 0-3 – O/U: 0-3) Win probability: 74.9%

28. New York Jets (0-3): The Jets fell to 0-3 after a last second loss to the Bucs. Backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor struggled early on, throwing a pick-6 in the first half but settled down in the second half to almost pull the victory out. Starter Justin Fields should be back next week. Next: +2.5 at Miami Dolphins – Mon, Sep. 29, 4:15 PM PT – O/U: 45.5 (ATS: 2-1 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 40.7%

29. Miami Dolphins (0-3): The Dolphins lost a tough matchup in a short week game in Buffalo, but they were competitive. They play again in the first game of a Monday Night doubleheader when they take on the 0-3 Jets in Miami. Head coach Mike McDaniel is sitting on a very hot seat in Miami. Next: -2.5 vs New York Jets – Mon, Sep. 29, 4:15 PM PT – O/U: 45.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 59.3%

30. New York Giants (0-3): Both New York teams are 0-3 but the Jets head coach is in his first season and will be given at least two seasons to clean up that mess. Giants head coach Brian Daboll is in his fourth season and is on the hot seat. Daboll has decided to change quarterbacks, starting rookie Jaxson Dart against the unbeaten Chargers next Sunday. Good luck with that move. Next: +6 vs Los Angeles Chargers – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 43.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 1-2) Win probability: 26.3%

31. New Orleans Saints (0-3): The Saints got blown out by the Seahawks in Seattle, 44-13. Quarterback Spencer Rattler is 0-9 as a starter. The losing is certainly not all on Rattler, but the Saints need a spark and rookie Tyler Shough should get the start next Sunday. For head coach Kellen Moore, this is going to be a very long season. Next: +12.5 at Buffalo Bills – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 47.5 (ATS: 0-3 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 5.9%

32. Tennessee Titans (0-3): The Titans lost again, this time to the Colts, 41-20. Head coach Brian Callahan, the former UCLA QB, is struggling to find a much-needed early season win for his team and his rookie quarterback, Cameron Ward. The Titans travel down to Houston this week to take on the struggling 0-3 Texans in The Crummy Game of the Week. Next: +7 at Houston Texans – Sun, Sep. 28, 10:00 AM PT – O/U: 38.5 (ATS: 1-2 – O/U: 2-1) Win probability: 25.1%



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